Goldie's Paper Chase

Setups

2012-02-18T20:38:00.000-05:00

Here are a bunch of setups that look decent. As we approach SPX $1370 I expect a pullback so these bullish setups might not work. But then again they might :-)

Apple puts?

2012-02-17T00:28:00.000-05:00

I will be looking to buy puts in Apple if it shows resistance in the 510-515 area... No chart but if you look at my last AAPL post that is approximately where the upper blue line is located..

Keep knocking AMZN down..

2012-02-16T13:27:00.000-05:00

And I'll keep buying the calls.. Long Mar 180's since this morning. Made obscene profits my last 2 buys and I think the result will be the same this time. I trade charts not news and AMZN gapped down right into support this morning..

The 20 year wedge in AAPL

2012-02-15T01:35:00.001-05:00

Taking profits

2012-02-14T13:02:00.000-05:00

I sold some of my positions i have been holding since early December.. I am bullish as ever and 1370 on the $SPX is coming, however I have a lot of exposure and I hate to give all that cheddar back..

Late Night Thought

2012-02-11T04:14:00.000-05:00

$SPX 1370 sooner than you think.

AXP to break 5 year trendline?

2012-02-09T19:57:00.000-05:00

First chart is a 5 year weelky chart. AXP is in the process of testing that line right now. Chart two is a daily chart. AXP is holding up very well under this long term resistance and I could make the argument that for the last four days AXP is forming a bull flag.. It could stay range bound between 51.30- 52.50 for a few more days but I think it breaks higher eventually. I'm looking to get into this soon.

Silver longs watch out!

2012-02-09T00:11:00.000-05:00

This 60 minute chart shows the RSI is diverging from price. The chart is a bit busy the only lines that matter are the orange one.. If you are long SLV you might want to tighten stops.. No position here but I might get some puts soon..

The target remains $SPX 1370

2012-02-04T10:31:00.001-05:00

I have mentioned in a few of my posts starting as early as December that I was looking for 1370-1375 on $SPX before a real pullback occurs but I never put up a chart to illustrate how I came up with that number.. Well here ya go......

BTW I held AMZN through earnings. I bought in at 182 a while back and added more plus some Feb 180 calls when AMZN got back above 177.10 after the earnings dump. I'm still in the calls which are up nicely. They will be sold sometime next week. As for the AMZN stock I will be holding that longer term..

What Recession?

2012-01-29T23:50:00.000-05:00

I just got back off my Disney cruise and it was absolutely packed! I know that is anecdotal but nonetheless our ship was packed and from the look of all the other ships pulling into the Bahamas they were packed too..

Futures are down 7ish as I type.. Looks like a bull wedge to me on this 60 min chart...

BTW I highly recommend Disney cruise. If you have a young kid it is worth it...

Going on a cruise tomorrow..

2012-01-25T22:03:00.001-05:00

And I did not even bring my laptop. I don't think this market will have a real pullback until the $SPX 1370-1375 area. I been long since Thanksgiving and I believe overall this market is heading much higher.

CBI

2012-01-24T22:31:00.000-05:00

First chart is 5 year, second chart is 60 day/60 min.. I'm Bullish on this long term too..

The most important trendline in the universe ($SPX)

2012-01-19T23:16:00.001-05:00

Ok maybe that title is a bit over the top, but I believe this is it. I have mentioned many times on how one of my strategies is to connect the head and right shoulder of head/shoulders patterns. If that line is broken on this $SPX chart then I expect the market to really catch fire to the upside. There may be a hard pullback before this line breaks but I believe soon it will go down.Hell with this market it might go down tomorrow.

Yahoo!

2012-01-19T01:38:00.001-05:00

Looks like a good place to get long.... I may try some Feb $16 calls tomm..

Closed out my Jan 180 AMZN calls

2012-01-18T15:11:00.000-05:00

In my AMZN post on December 28 I posted in the comments section I bought some AMZN calls. I paid 3.88 then and sold today at 9.63. I wish a my trades hit like that!! I am still long the common @ 178 with no intention to sell anytime soon.

That Einhorn may be on to something with XRX

2012-01-18T12:18:00.000-05:00

A long term look at RIG

2012-01-17T20:47:00.001-05:00

The rising trendline on this weekly chart goes back to 1993. Rig is setting up like in 2002 IMO. A patient buyer with a longer term holding strategy could be rewarded nicely.

IBM

2012-01-16T23:20:00.000-05:00

Bullish consolidation? I am looking to get long above the 100 SMA..

XLK to 30?

2012-01-13T23:16:00.000-05:00

Has not broke out yet. Still like AMZN above 178-180 area..

Time to sell housing stocks?

2012-01-08T19:52:00.000-05:00

The first week of the S&P on a 5 minute chart

2012-01-07T16:25:00.000-05:00

COH

2012-01-06T00:43:00.000-05:00

Looks ready to breakout. This many other retail stocks are ready to continue their move higher.

$SPX is at the neckline

2012-01-03T18:22:00.000-05:00

Nice rally today, however the rally found a bit of resistance at the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern from last year. I think that eventually the $SPX will clear the neckline but a pullback is most likely first.

BTW I have been sick since the 1st so I did not get up a 2012 predictions post. Ahh predictions are useless anyways..:-)

Will TLT lead this market higher in 2012?

2011-12-30T21:29:00.000-05:00

As this weekly chart shows TLT has been rising since September while the RSI has been falling. This suggest that money has been coming out of bonds. That money is going to go somewhere and I think equities are the most likely place.

No AMZN trade....yet

2011-12-28T22:10:00.000-05:00

Waiting for 178 to get long or bull wedge to break to get long. Still think it's going much higher but I'm in no rush..

I'm bullish

2011-12-27T01:09:00.000-05:00

Stock look setup to go higher. I see many setups that look playable from the long side. Here are some.

Merry Christmas!!

2011-12-25T13:53:00.000-05:00

Nothing says Christmas like a little Full Metal Jacket :-) Merry Christmas!!!!!

AMZN weekly chart is a.....

2011-12-24T23:11:00.000-05:00

BUY!! I'm going to get some as a Christmas present next week..

This about sums it up for the bears this week

2011-12-23T22:59:00.000-05:00

Bulls ain't done either :-)

FCX coiled up..

2011-12-22T23:26:00.000-05:00

This going higher IMO..

GLD a buy on the weekly Chart..

2011-12-22T13:38:00.000-05:00

For long term investors in GLD this might be a good time to get in..

Fourth time's a charm?

2011-12-20T23:51:00.002-05:00

Since the end of October there has been 3 test/failures at the 200 SMA. I doubt if there will be another one. Next time the $SPX hits the 200 SMA I expect it to break. I will know I'm wrong if the $SPX closes below yesterday's low. I got more long on the open BTW...

XLF and $SPX are still in bullish consolidation

2011-12-19T21:01:00.002-05:00

My last 6 posts have all been either about XLF or $SPX and how I believe they are setting up to go higher. Nothing has happen (so far) to change my mind on that. As you can see by my charts (both are 60 minute charts) XLF and $SPX are still in their respective bull flags. I'm patiently waiting for my entry.

Midnight thought: I will probably buy $SPX 1185 if we get there..

Remember the flashcrash?

2011-12-17T20:51:00.001-05:00

$SPX is sitting on top of the high before to flashcrash. First chart is a weekly back to the flashcrash and second chart is a 60 minute chart to show what I believe is a bull flag at support. IMO this market will move higher soon.

Waiting on XLF

2011-12-16T23:55:00.000-05:00

XLF looks to be forming a bull flag since my last post. I'm waiting for 12.75 to break before I try a long... Watching and waiting..

Diamond Pattern on XLF

2011-12-08T20:14:00.000-05:00

First chart is the weekly. The only reason I show this is because I think 12.60 area on XLF will be a factor..

Next is daily. Not sure if it is a diamond top or bottom. I am looking for this to be a bottom pattern, which means Financials going much higher. Watching and waiting..

$SPX 1375 by X-Mas??

2011-12-07T21:46:00.001-05:00

If AB=CD then D is approximately 1375
HO HO HO

Short XOM here? Maybe, maybe not

2011-12-02T15:08:00.001-05:00

One of my favorite stocks, XOM has hit it's descending trendline again. Last time I called to short that resistance line, this time I say not to fast on the shorting.. I think XOM might pull back a little (very little), but this trend line resistance is primed to be broken very soon (maybe next week). If that happens then the market will follow. Maybe I'll take some XOM calls next week....

I put my IRA funds back into the market

2011-12-02T00:37:00.001-05:00

Yesterday on the break above of the 100 SMA of $SPX I put my long term IRA funds from the 30 year bond fund back into the S&P 500 fund. Anyone who has been following my blog for at least the last 6 months might remember I pulled that money out of stocks back in July on the failure of that same 100 SMA. If the $SPX closes back below 1150 then I was probably wrong about this move.. We shall see....

Last time I logged into that account was July. Hopefully I won't need to log back in for a long while.

DO NOT short this..

2011-11-27T20:25:00.002-05:00

I went through a lot of charts and I'd say 75-80% look like bullish falling wedges or flags.. I think we are going to rip hard from here. I got long last week and I will be adding on the open. Bears watch out for Santa Sleigh.

Check out my last post if you are looking for easy longs.

The not-so-obvious bullish consolidation

2011-11-25T23:45:00.000-05:00

These are all 60-minute charts with falling wedge patterns. Keep in mind these are all different sector funds so if these patterns play out might be the tart of the Santa rally..

Gobble Gobble

2011-11-24T19:15:00.002-05:00

Happy Thanksgiving!

Almost time to buy the semi's?

2011-11-22T00:17:00.000-05:00

Looking to buy a close above today's high...

Just a neckline test before the big breakdown (SPY weekly head/shoulders)

2011-11-19T21:30:00.000-05:00

I have not looked at charts in 2 weeks, and what I see does not look good. Charts look sloppy and no good patterns are showing up. I decided to look at SPY and it looks very bearish. Besides very short term trades I would not be long. Here is the weekly chart. You be the judge...

On the road..

2011-11-12T14:34:00.002-05:00

I been on the road and wont be back posting for a couple of more weeks.. I'll be back so stay tuned..:-)

XOM update

2011-11-01T19:47:00.000-04:00

It definitely pulling back hard and the market is following just like I thought. The pullback is very nasty and I actually think the MF global thing is a tipping point. I'm not sure this market is going higher. Matter of fact when $SPX reteaced to the 100 SMA I loaded up a bit on SPXU. I'm not selliing until $SPX can close over the 100 SMA. I digress.. The point is if XOM want's to stay bullish then 74.50 should be support. Wait for the buyers to show up 1st.. Chart time:

XOM should pull back HOWEVER....

2011-10-28T02:14:00.000-04:00

If it just pulls back slightly for a couple days and the breaks the downtrend line, XOM going to roll higher and take the market with it..

Is gold ready to rocket?

2011-10-27T22:12:00.001-04:00

As Brian Shannon would say "from failed moves comes fast moves"..

Gold looks like a failed bear flag to it could really
take off from here.. I guess I'll be scanning some miner plays..

Inverse head and shoulders on Nokia?

2011-10-22T03:16:00.000-04:00

I have went thru at least 200 charts tonight and I'm about ready to jump on the bull train.. Many stocks have not only broken above their 100 SMA but have exploded above it.. I think the SPY might do the same.. More on that later.

I just had to point out NOK is looking bullish.. It has cleared it's neckline and 100 SMA.. It could move to 8 bucks if the inverse H/S plays out...

Late night thought on copper..

2011-10-20T22:29:00.001-04:00

If copper leads then this market will get hammered tomorrow.

Edit.. Copper up 4% in afterhours... Market going higher?? :-)

Guess we will see tomorrow..

Seattle Genetics

2011-10-20T21:10:00.000-04:00

Just put this up on Stocktwits. Could be a good low risk long here..

Still looks bearish to me..

2011-10-18T03:23:00.000-04:00

Many stocks still look bearish in all sectors and will continue to look that way until they can clear the 100 SMA..

Here is an example: GDX

As I said I believe gold is about to get slaughtered more than it already has, and it will take the miners with it

GDX will come drop quickly if it cannot 55.90. I think a breakdown is coming. If GDX can test and hold 55.90, then I will change my stance.

Update on that IWM Chart

2011-10-13T23:09:00.000-04:00

Plain and simple.. IWM is not a short unless it takes out today's low and get back below the H/S trendline.. Waiting and watching..

No go on the TZA today..

2011-10-12T20:55:00.000-04:00

I am still not convinced this market is ready for new highs.. At a minimum a pull back is in order.. Sitting on hand and waiting.. I'm looking for some weakness before I get short.. If the new trend is up I will go with the flow, but the jury is still out on that for me..

Small caps ready to move lower starting tomorrow

2011-10-11T21:13:00.002-04:00

I just put this up on stocktwits.. I'll be looking at TZA with a stop above today's high.. Hopefully it pops and drop..

The Bear flag may be dead but the Head and Shoulders is alive!!

2011-10-11T20:40:00.002-04:00

Last week I did a post about the bear flag on $SPX morphing into a H/S pattern.
Here is a link to that post: http://goldiespaperchase.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx-from-bear-flag-to-head-and.html

Unless the purple line is broken and holds, then this pattern is alive. Like I said many times in previous post, I like to connect the right shoulder and head with a trendline. If that line breaks it means a failed head and shoulders and will lead to massive move higher. I think the line could break but reverse with a close below.. I will go big time short if that happens.. We shall see... Also the topping pattern that has defined this year is a H/S, and I think this mini H/S will play out too.. I'm think sell the rip is still the play(this has been one hell of a rip so far)

POST EDIT!! Added Chart..

I just looked as the ES 5 min. chart for today and lookie here.. A FAILED inverse H/S... Could be the start of that move down... Or could be just some back and filling.. I'm still looking for $SPX 985...

Is the bear flag dead?

2011-10-10T17:59:00.001-04:00

The 2 month bear flag looks like it has been violated and is no longer valid. SPY looks to have broken out of a bull wedge(I did not notice it until this weekend) Still many stocks are sloppy so when this pattern backtest maybe stocks will look more actionable.. Time to look for potential longs and monitor them for entries.

There is still a significant rising resistance on the chart but we could stay underneath that and still end up at $SPX 1300 by the end of the year..

PCP (last post)

2011-10-10T16:52:00.000-04:00

Altough the PCP experiment was not a total failure, they way I would have traded it would have been disastrous. If I was daytrading last week, I could have made money on PCP. Problem is I'm not a daytrader. Now as I look at PCP it has re-taken all it's moving averages and can really shoot higher if it breaks the blue downtrend line.

I don't know if the market is ready to resume it's bull run. There are still many stock that look broken. I still have no interest in putting long term money to work and I won't until SPY can hold above the 100 SMA.

Well well.. Look where PCP stalled...

2011-10-07T19:58:00.000-04:00

Hopefully it will pop on Tuesday to the resistance line I got because of course I was no where near a computer to get a short going.. My luck it will fall without me..
1st chart is a 60 min and second is a 2 min chart..

Experimenting with PCP

2011-10-06T23:21:00.000-04:00

Not how you think either.. What I mean is I think the neckline for the PCP head/shoulders is the dotted red line and I think it will act as resistance.. I will follow the up if I'm right or wrong..

BTW I am still not buying this rally.. I may have missed the boat.. Wouldn't be the 1st time.. Still looking to sell the rip..

Bear kissback in XLF,XLE,QQQ. Plus gold going sub 1400

2011-10-06T02:29:00.000-04:00

Sell the rips people.. Last two days is what a rip looks like...

-Sent from my iPhone

2011-10-05T21:42:00.000-04:00

RIP Steve Jobs! You changed the world.

$SPX and the 200 week SMA

2011-10-05T18:03:00.000-04:00

Currently we are 2 points above the 200 week SMA and the market spent a lot of energy to get up here. If we can close the week above this average the bull might start showing up. My gut tells me by Friday at the close it will be clear that the market has failed at this level.. I still think 985 will play out. Also there is a signifigant trend line resistance at this level. No chart as this is a post coming from my iPhone. Maybe when I get home tonight I'll add a chart..

Timing is everthing

2011-10-04T21:02:00.004-04:00

This morning I had to go in late to work, so I was able to observe the market action live.. I was still short via TZA. I noticed for the couple of hours that the Russell was staying positive while the other indices were cratering.. Anyone who has been reading my blog for awhile knows the I believe that Small caps lead and so do Semis.
So about 1030 I decided to sell out of my TZA and book a nice profit.. Then I went to work and had not looked at the market the rest of the day..

The rip the balls off rally into the close proves that small caps still are a place to look for leadership..

I also thought that if the $spx could get back to 1120 it would be a hell of a place to short. So now I will be looking to get short again if 1120 proves as resistance.

It is still a sell the rips market but timing will be everything. Sell the rip too early and you can get smoked...

UPDATE 5 Oct@ 11:10.. $SPX 1145 is the other likely area to take on a low risk short.

$SPX: From Bear Flag to Head and Shoulders

2011-09-30T20:58:00.001-04:00

This thing has 1000 written all over.. Sell the rips people.

P.S. Remember what I said about gold.. The annihilation of the precious metals will continue.

Bull Flag on ES 60 minute chart?

2011-09-29T20:07:00.000-04:00

Could go to about 1190 if it plays out...

Why would anyone think this interview was a hoax?

2011-09-27T22:08:00.001-04:00

On yahoo the following interview is titled "Was the BBC a victim of a hoax?" This is why I NEVER watch any investment related television. It is full of cheerleaders that think the market can only go up. Maybe his remark about GS ruling the world is a bit over the top (maybe not).. But I think he could be right.. BTW I bought a little TZA this afternoon. If you have not figures it out yet trades held longer that 2 days will probably go against you. I will probably be out of TZA by the close tomorrow....

$SPX bear flag target is 985

2011-09-23T02:39:00.000-04:00

Buckle up... Sell the rips until further notice..

Impulsive trading will kill you

2011-09-21T19:54:00.000-04:00

On monday I threw up a intraday post about liking the action at the end of the day. And I bought some.. By Tuesday at 11AM I looked like a genius.. By the close a fool.. What's worse is I held today for too long.. I hate that.. I get impulsive sometimes and I must break that habit.. I been waiting for the 50 SMA and I fucking missed the trade because I made 2 stupid mistakes.. Impulsive buying and not selling immediately when the market gave me an out.. Shit.

At least my long term for my TSP account has been good. In that account I been cash since about $SPX 1275..I will not even look to put that money to work until the $SPX is above the 200 SMA. The way things are looking I might not log back into that account until 2013....

I should have listened to my own posts and shorted BTU,X, and VNO.. Live learn..

I do have one sure fire way to increase my income and that is to get promoted.. If the Air Force that means study, study, study.. So my post will be restricted to the weekend from now on. At least until I test.. I will try to make it a good one. I think Saturday will most likely be when I post..

Silver and Gold looking bullish again

2011-09-19T20:17:00.000-04:00

Last time I posted about gold I thought it had some falling to do.. Well it did! But the way it is correcting looks like a bullish wedge.. This is the SLV chart but GLD looks similar. I almost bought AGQ into the close but I held back.. I am very interested here though.....

I may have jump the gun..

2011-09-19T19:13:00.000-04:00

I got a little impulsive into the close.. Might be paying dearly tomorrow for it.. Mistakes happen in this game..
If the lows of today are broken tomorrow I will be all cash again..

Long some XLE and QLD into the close...

2011-09-19T15:40:00.002-04:00

More on this later.. I'm liking the action all of a sudden...

S&P, X,BTU,VNO are shorts too..

2011-09-18T21:00:00.000-04:00

I will look to short these charts.. Since the SPY is on my list many charts are probably shorts.. XOM comes to mind too (no chart for XOM but it is a short too with a stop @75-76 ish)

Intel is a short

2011-09-16T22:51:00.002-04:00

I have not looked at a chart in 5 days due to my schedule but now I'm back.. I have scanned a few key charts, I came across INTC..

Looks like the last 5 days is nothing more than a short squeeze right into long term resistance. Now maybe INTC will just pull back and break out or maybe it will head much lower..(I'm thinking much lower BTW) Either way looks like a low risk short if INTC shows weakness.. AAPL may be double topping too.. Ok I got more scanning to do....

INTC may have another .25-.30 cents to the upside left.. If it can reach 22.20 I'll take a stab..

So you think gold is safe eh?

2011-09-10T21:53:00.000-04:00

Well if this bear flag breaks then gold will take a hit too.. I think gold is going to get slaughtered soon.. Liquidity will shrivel up if we get a full out crash taking gold with it. Just my opinion.. No position (yet)

Guess Who's Back??

2011-09-06T01:07:00.000-04:00

And he be hooongrayyyy!!

Late night thought..

2011-09-03T01:47:00.002-04:00

Was today the fakeout before the breakout next week? If so then I'm going to wish I sold this SDS I'm holding..

Short em'

2011-09-01T22:01:00.000-04:00

IMO time to short.. All these are showing signs of failure at a resistance level.

Failed breakout on XLF?

2011-09-01T20:53:00.000-04:00

SMH Bear Kiss?

2011-08-31T19:31:00.000-04:00

1st chart is from the 09' low/2nd chart is the 60 minute.. Top probably in on SMH.. Meaning the top is in for tech. Below 27.45 things could get ugly..

Bull flag on XLK???

2011-08-25T23:54:00.000-04:00

I might take a stab long above 23.75...

$SPX bear pennant a 3 resistance levels

2011-08-25T18:22:00.000-04:00

$SPX needs a strong move above 1173 to negate this.. I'll wait for the break.. Big move is coming...

XLU and XLP are leading.. Not sure if that's a good thing/Gut feel on Bernake Speech

2011-08-25T00:11:00.001-04:00

Since this massive selloff there are only 2 sectors that are back above the 200 SMA... XLU and XLP.. And XLU is really on fire!! Money is chasing that safety and yield.. Not sure if this is good long term.. These are defensive stocks and I'm not sure if they can lead the market to new highs.. Maybe they can.. Maybe tech and small caps will play catch-up. This is not an area that normally leads in a bull market..

My gut is telling me that this market will sell off after the Bernake speech.. Just a gut feel.. I am still cautiously bullish but still sitting in cash too..

Look to Consumer Staples and Biotech

2011-08-23T00:23:00.003-04:00

It's late, I'm tired but I think we are very close to bottoming out. I see many, many, MANY stocks looking like they could be setting for a reversal... HOWEVER they need to confirm breakout levels.. The triangle in XLP to me has a bullish bias and I'm calling it a bull flag. Now this is just a 60 minute chart but the rally has to start somewhere.. WMT,PG,PEP,KR,K look the best.. In Boitech BIIB, SGEN, RGEN could be good buys too.. It takes courage to get long here.. And that is where the most money can be made.. Now lets hope I'm right..

I'm still in cash BTW and looking to get my money off of vacation.

Watching the miners..

2011-08-20T23:06:00.000-04:00

There is always a bull market somewhere.. And the mining sector is still looking good.. Here are some I'm looking at for next week...

Long on the open...

2011-08-19T09:39:00.001-04:00

Via UPRO.. I will be cash by the close though..

Inverse head and shoulders from last summer on SPY....

2011-08-18T02:25:00.000-04:00

I have said in a couple of posts how I like to connect the head and right shoulder with a trend line because if that line breaks then money can be made playing that pattern as a failure.. Take a look at the SPY... The green circles highlight the inverse H/S and the resistance it is giving now..

Ill be looking to get in some SDS on weakness in the SPY tomorrow..

Will prior support on APA become resistance?

2011-08-16T22:16:00.001-04:00

Looking like a yes.. Many stocks look like bear consolidation patterns.. APA is just another example like DECK.

1st chart is a long term chat to show the trendline and the 2nd chart is a 60 minute chart showing the wedge in APA..

This market is going lower.

Will support on DECK become resistance?

2011-08-13T20:34:00.000-04:00

The same can be said about many stocks. Here is just an example..

MCP

2011-08-10T23:38:00.000-04:00

I might take a stab long with a very small position and a wide stop..

In a june 6th post I pondered...

2011-08-09T22:37:00.000-04:00

Can the $SPX lose 100+ more points and still be bullish?

http://goldiespaperchase.blogspot.com/2011/06/can-spx-lose-100-more-points-and-still.html

Here is the chart I posted that day..

And look today(Updated with a probable channel..)

Well we have lost that 100+ points and yes I still believe the bull market could still be intact. But we need to build a base so some charts can set up.

ES Bouncing at the 261.8 fib re-tracement

2011-08-09T00:41:00.001-04:00

Interesting.... Small bounce so far... But will it hold??

Like it wasn't even there..

2011-08-08T21:19:00.000-04:00

I was pointing to the 200 Week SMA looking for some type of support. The $SPX cut through that 200 week like a hot knife thru butter. Like I said last week, many stocks are broken. Now the indices are broken too. the best thing to do is to either daytrade and be in cash by the close or just stay cash..

Could Friday be the low of the year?

2011-08-05T23:05:00.001-04:00

The fastest way to go broke is to try to call bottoms. That being said I finally got that test of the 100 week SMA I been looking for and I think a bottom is near. The best thing the market could do for the bullish case is chop sideways and consolidate. Right now charts are messy and need to form some kind of base. Look for consolidation between $SPX 1220 and $SPX 1185.

BTW that potential channel I mentioned in my last post.. Check this 60 minute $SPX chart:

SUNDAY UPDATE: Looking at the futures I say the answer is no LOL! Glad I'm in cash..

Look to the weekly

2011-08-04T23:48:00.000-04:00

As I have mentioned in a few posts (most recently Aug 2nd) I think $SPX is headed to test the 100 and 200 weekly SMA. This area I believe stocks will consolidate for the next move. I think $SPX 1140-1180 will probably be the area to start looking long again. The stock market could be setting up for a September/October rally. I guess we will see once September gets here. The chart below is basically the same chart from 2 days ago with a possible new upchannel on the $SPX.

Ouchie!!

2011-08-04T11:58:00.000-04:00

Those Hammers yesterday were not even good for a flip long. I knew better. Hammers need to confirm the following day and I anticipated that they would.. I was wrong and I took my lumps and dumped SSO..

On the bright side I caught the breakdown in silver. I'm in ZSL near it's lows today..

Hamma tyme

2011-08-03T20:31:00.000-04:00

The hammers formed in the major indices look like a reversal may be upon us. Plus the $SPX looks like it set a bear trap below that 1257 neckline from my last post and closed in the green. I took some SSO home into the close.

$SPX year to date..

2011-08-02T15:05:00.001-04:00

We are approaching the YTD opening range. $SPX might bounce at the 1257 area. I do not think the bounce will last more than a few days and the real buying area will be around $SPX 1185. There is a Head/Shoulders on the weekly chart that I think will play out..

Late night thought..

2011-07-31T02:16:00.000-04:00

About this fake ass debt crisis:
Deal or no deal, the market is going lower. Sell the rips.

Many broken stocks

2011-07-28T21:50:00.000-04:00

As I scan the market I see so many stock that just look ugly. The is no pattern to them and many are just completely imploding. Action on the $SPX was not bullish at all and for now I am calling it a bear kiss of the 100 SMA. $SPX needs to clear the 100SMA on the upside before I get bullish. I still hold some stuff long but I think by tomorrow at the close I'm going to be sitting in cash. I think we might be very close to freefall mode..